A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
