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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving together. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still